Predicting holiday confidence

The University has been playing a key role in identifying consumers' year-ahead holiday travel plans.

Results of First Rate's Holiday Confidence Index (HCI) have been in the national news over recent weeks, with over 100 items in the regional and top press. The University's Department of Marketing, Innovation, Leisure and Enterprise (MILE) in the Business School contributes to the data analysis and report writing, in conjunction with the Institute of Travel & Tourism, and YouGov.

The HCI shows that fewer people plan to holiday abroad over the next year, however Europe is UK holidaymakers' favourite destination.

Key items in the Mail and Mirror online are below:

How does the HCI work?

A nationally representative sample of approximately 5,000 respondents are surveyed to provide details of their holiday intentions, planned frequency, duration and associated spending over the next 12 month period. An index is assigned to each of these elements which are then combined to create a detailed, industry specific, composite index of aggregated consumer ‘holiday confidence’ for any business with an interest in the UK outbound holiday market.

Peter Robinson, Head of Department of MILE is the main contact for First Rate, whilst Ade Oriade and Nick Brooker wrote the report based on the YouGov data.
First Rate is the FX provider owned by the Post Office and the Bank of Ireland.